The Brazilian economy has not confirmed the brief improvement in April. The Economic Activity Index Central Bank (IBC-Br) fell 0.51% in May, after growing 0.07% in April (revised), which was the first increase in 15 months. In the year, the decline was a significant 5.79%.
In the 12 months ending in May, the IBC-Br indicates a decrease of 5.43% in the series without adjustment and 5.51% in the adjusted data. Due to the constant indicator review, the IBC-Br measured for 12 months is more stable than the monthly measurement. Compared with May 2015, there was a low of 4.91% in the series without adjustment and 5.32% with adjustment.
The results came worse than expected by the market players. The average of forecasts made by 21 financial institutions suggested a decrease of 0.24% in the month. Estimates ranged from a decrease of 0.9% and increase of 0.1% for the monthly variation.
In the June Inflation Report, the central bank projected a drop of 3.3% in the GDP for 2016, against the previous forecast of a 3.5% decline. Analysts consulted for making the Focus Bulletin also point to a decrease of 3.3% for the Brazilian economy this year.
Brazilian’s most traded stock ETF in the US, EWZ soared 46.5% in the same 6 months:
In the beginning of the year, the perspective for the Brazilian market was not good with the country in recession and inflation sky rocketing. However, in the middle of February, the inflection started fueled by a global recover in commodities prices and an improvement in the expectations for the economic policies, which became known as the impeachment rally.
Besides, the downside event of the semester, the Brexit, was followed by an unexpected help which were the speculations that central banks all over the world will stimulate their economies to face market volatility. On Friday, the president of England’s central bank, Mark Carney, said that the growth in the UK will slow down in the next months and additional interest rate cuts and other measures of monetary ease will be necessary.
Sure, Brazil is not out of the woods yet and the new government still has lots to do to recover the economy. However, the better economic climate has started to translate into improvements in the confidence:
Besides the more favorable political environment, what is also helping in this confidence growth is the fact that some economic indicators are improving, albeit still very bad: IBC-Br, Industry and Services.