CSN Mineração (CMIN3) – Long-Term Investment Analysis for Foreign Investors

CSN Mineração S.A. is the mining arm of Brazil’s Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) and is currently the second-largest exporter of iron ore in Brazil, behind Vale . The company operates an integrated mine-rail-port system centered on its flagship Casa de Pedra mine in Minas Gerais, an export terminal (TECAR) at the Port of Itaguaí (Rio de Janeiro), and a significant stake in the MRS logistics railway . This integrated infrastructure gives CSN Mineração tight control over costs and efficiency in delivering ore to global markets . With JORC-certified reserves of over 3 billion tonnes of iron ore , CSN Mineração produces a range of ore products (lump, sinter feed, pellet feed) and has historically been among the five most cost-competitive seaborne iron ore producers . CSN Mineração was created in 2015 through a partnership with a consortium of Asian steelmakers and it went public in 2021 (IPO price R$8.50) . Today CSN (the parent) remains the controlling shareholder (~69% ownership) , with strategic investors from Japan, Korea, Taiwan, etc., and a minority free float.

Ticker and ADR: On the Brazilian stock exchange (B3), the company’s common shares trade under ticker CMIN3. As of 2025, CSN Mineração does not have a listed ADR (American Depositary Receipt) on U.S. exchanges. (Note: The parent company CSN is listed on NYSE under ADR SID, but that represents the broader steel and mining conglomerate , not the mining subsidiary specifically.) Therefore, foreign investors who want pure-play exposure to CSN Mineração must typically purchase CMIN3 shares via a broker that offers access to B3 in Brazil. Some international brokers (e.g. Interactive Brokers) allow trading on B3, or one could invest indirectly through Brazilian ETFs/funds that include CMIN3. In absence of an official ADR, no easy U.S.-traded equivalent exists for CMIN3. (Be wary of any over-the-counter tickers – as of now there is no widely recognized OTC listing for CSN Mineração.)

Expansion Plans and Long-Term Growth Outlook

CSN Mineração is investing heavily to expand its iron ore operations at the Casa de Pedra complex, targeting a jump in output from ~42 million tonnes in 2024 to 68 Mtpa by 2028 . The Project “P15” involves new processing facilities to produce high-grade pellet feed for the premium “green steel” market.

A centerpiece of CSN Mineração’s long-term growth is its major expansion project known as “Itabirito P15.” This project involves R$15 billion of capex (2024–2027) to expand the Congonhas (MG) mining complex . The P15 project will add 16.5 million tonnes per year of processing capacity via a new beneficiation plant scheduled to start up by late 2027 . The goal is to **increase annual iron ore output from ~42 Mtpa currently to 68 Mtpa by 2028 – a ~60% production boost. This growth will come from both higher mine output and increased third-party ore purchases, according to the company’s guidance. CSN Mineração’s updated projections call for ~42 Mt in 2025, rising to 53 Mt in 2027 and 68 Mt in 2028 .

Importantly, the expansion is focused on product quality as well as volume. The new P15 plant will produce a high-grade pellet feed with 67.5–68% Fe content, targeting demand for premium “green steel” raw material . CSN Mineração asserts this pellet feed will be of even higher quality than Vale’s flagship Carajás fines , which could command premium pricing. The P15 project is expected to extend the mine life at Casa de Pedra by ~25 years (out to 2080) and solidify CSN Mineração’s position in the high-grade ore niche.

To support the volume growth, CSN Mineração is leveraging its integrated logistics – the company owns 18.6% of MRS Logística railway which hauls ore from Minas to the coast, and it operates the TECAR export terminal with 42+ Mtpa capacity (and potential to expand further). This integration helps control unit costs and avoid infrastructure bottlenecks. The company’s strategy is not to rival Vale on sheer volume (Vale ships 200+ Mtpa), but to compete on quality and value-added products . For example, CSN Mineração has secured long-term offtake contracts with Japanese and Middle Eastern steel mills for its new high-grade output, reducing reliance on spot sales to China .

From a financial perspective, the expansion is capital intensive: CSN Mineração has revised its expansion capex budget to R$15.3 billion (2023–2028) for Phase 1 (up from R$13.8b) . However, the company forecasts that once the P15 project is fully ramped (circa 2028), it could generate an additional R$4 billion in annual EBITDA from the new capacity . Management expects the mine’s C1 cash cost to remain in the low $20s per tonne (US$21.5–23.0/ton in 2024) despite inflation – still competitive globally, though not as low as Vale’s Northern System. If successful, the expansion should drive substantial long-term volume growth and earnings uplift, supporting both capital appreciation (as production and cash flow scale up) and maintaining the company’s ability to pay attractive dividends (discussed next).

Recent Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns

CSN Mineração’s latest results underscore both the company’s operational strength and its exposure to iron ore market volatility. In 2Q 2025, the company achieved record production and the second-highest sales volume in its history – 11.8 million tonnes sold in the quarter . Robust output and cost control led to an adjusted EBITDA of R$1.3 billion for 2Q25 (37.2% EBITDA margin) . Notably, C1 cash costs per tonne have been trending down, reflecting efficiency gains, even as sales volumes rose . However, weaker iron ore prices in that quarter offset some of the volume gains and pressured margins . Despite this, CSN Mineração managed to swing back to net profit of R$115.8 million in 2Q25, reversing a net loss in the prior quarter . This return to profitability “demonstrates the resilience of the operation” even amid price and exchange rate headwinds .

Crucially, the company continues to generate strong free cash flow. In 2Q25, CSN Mineração produced R$768 million of adjusted free cash flow – up ~40% QoQ – even while funding ongoing expansion projects . This cash generation enabled further deleveraging: as of mid-2025 the company has moved into a net cash position, with a negative net debt/EBITDA ratio of -0.80× . In other words, cash on hand exceeds gross debt, which provides a strong balance sheet buffer to support the expansion capex and sustain dividends. Total cash and equivalents were around R$14–15 billion in early 2025 , providing liquidity for growth investments.

Dividends: CSN Mineração has established itself as a generous dividend payer, which is a key attraction for long-term investors. The company’s stated policy is to distribute substantial portions of its free cash flow via dividends and “interest on equity” (JCP). In fact, CSN Mineração has delivered very high dividend yields in recent years, significantly above industry averages. For the fiscal year 2024, the company’s total distributions topped R$5.5 billion (roughly R$1.01 per share) across several payments – which at the prevailing stock price amounted to a dividend yield on the order of ~20% . For example, in July 2025 CSN Mineração paid out R$1.51 billion (combining dividends and JCP) that had been declared on 2024 results . Earlier, in late 2024, it had already distributed over R$3.0 billion in interim dividends and JCP on 2024 earnings . This followed hefty payouts in 2023 as well (e.g. ~R$1.55 billion interim dividend in May 2023, etc. ). The company explicitly acknowledges it is a “relevant dividend payer,” and these payouts underscore that .

Investors should note that part of the shareholder returns come as JCP (interest on equity), which is a Brazil-specific mechanism that confers tax advantages to the company (treated as a deductible interest expense) – we’ll discuss tax implications later, but JCP is subject to withholding tax whereas dividends (historically) were not. Overall, CSN Mineração’s combination of solid cash flows, a net-cash balance sheet, and strong iron ore output has enabled it to sustain both expansion investments and high dividends. Going forward, dividend amounts will naturally fluctuate with iron ore prices and profit levels; the extraordinary ~20% yield of last year may not be maintained if commodity prices soften or if cash is diverted to capex. Nonetheless, the company’s policy and track record suggest it aims to continue returning cash to shareholders generously as conditions allow. Even on a more normalized basis, analysts estimate CSN Mineração’s dividend yield to remain in double-digits for 2025 (Reuters shows ~15–16% trailing yield currently) , making it a potentially attractive income play – albeit one tied to cyclical commodity fortunes.

Valuation and Peer Comparison

Relative to peers, CSN Mineração represents a mid-sized, pure-play iron ore producer with a focus on high-grade product, whereas most global comparables are much larger diversified miners. This context is important when comparing valuation metrics:

Production Scale: CSN Mineração sold ~42 million tonnes in 2024 , aiming for ~68 Mt by 2028 post-expansion . In contrast, Vale produces on the order of 310–320 Mt annually (over 7 times CSN’s volume) and is the world’s largest iron ore miner. Global giants Rio Tinto and BHP each produce ~250 Mt/year of iron ore alongside other metals. Even pure-play Australian miner Fortescue Metals ships around 180–200 Mt/year. Thus, CSN Mineração is much smaller in output, though it punches above its weight as Brazil’s #2 exporter . It positions itself in a high-grade niche versus the mega-producers rather than trying to match their volume. Cost Position: Vale enjoys perhaps the lowest unit costs globally (thanks to massive scale and rich ore in Carajás), while Fortescue and Rio Tinto also have very low-cost operations in Australia’s Pilbara. CSN Mineração’s cost is competitive – C1 around $22/ton  – but still somewhat higher than Vale’s (Vale’s breakeven is often cited around $~18/ton or lower). That said, CSN compensates by selling a portion of premium grade ore at higher prices. The focus on 67.5% Fe pellet feed could yield premium margins if “green steel” demand rises, but in pure cost terms CSN is not the lowest-cost producer in the world. Market Valuation: At the current price around R$5.15, CSN Mineração’s market cap is roughly R$28 billion (~US$5.6B) . The stock’s valuation multiples reflect both its recent earnings and the market’s forward outlook. Trailing P/E (TTM) is about 12.5× earnings , while the forward P/E (based on consensus 2025 earnings) is much higher, ~26–27× . This indicates that analysts expect a dip in near-term earnings (perhaps due to lower forecast iron ore prices or higher costs during the expansion phase). By comparison, Vale is trading around 8–9× trailing earnings  (and an even lower forward P/E ~6–7×, reflecting a rebound or more stable earnings outlook) – a significantly lower earnings multiple than CMIN. The broader iron ore mining sector tends to have single-digit P/Es (reflecting cyclicality): for instance, Vale’s TTM P/E is ~8.5 , Rio Tinto’s is ~6–7, and BHP’s around ~12. CSN Mineração’s higher P/E partly arises from its lower earnings base in the past year (due to some one-off losses and FX impacts) and the expectation of stronger profits only after its expansion comes on line. On a price-to-book basis, CMIN trades about ~3.0× book , which is higher than some global peers (Vale ~1.5× P/B, Rio Tinto ~2×) – likely because CMIN has periodically paid out so much in dividends that its equity book value is relatively small, and investors price in growth potential. Dividend Yield: This is where CSN Mineração really stands out. As noted, trailing yield is on the order of 15%+ . Vale’s dividend yield, by contrast, is currently around 6–7% (TTM yield ~6.97% as of Sep 2025) . Vale did have some periods of extraordinary payouts (the trailing yield in 2022–23 spiked with big special dividends, at one point over 20% , but on a normalized basis ~6–10% is more common for Vale). Rio Tinto and BHP yield roughly 4–6% annually  , and Fortescue Metals often yields around 8–10% (Fortescue has famously high payouts) . So CMIN’s yield is roughly double that of the highest-yielding global peers. This reflects its aggressive payout policy and perhaps a valuation discount by the market (investors demand a high yield to compensate for Brazil country risk and the company’s smaller size). For an income-focused investor, CMIN has delivered superior cash returns – but one should ask if that is sustainable. If iron ore prices weaken or if the company prioritizes funding expansion internally, dividends could moderate. Still, even a 50% reduction from last year’s level would leave a yield competitive with peers.

In summary, CSN Mineração appears inexpensive on a dividend yield basis, but somewhat expensive on earnings multiples relative to peers. The market may be pricing in lower near-term earnings (hence high forward P/E) and some execution risk in the expansion. Meanwhile, peers like Vale trade at low P/Es due to perceived China demand risks and their own issues, yet still offer solid (if lower) yields. An investor must weigh CMIN’s growth trajectory and payout appeal against its risks: it is a one-commodity, one-country play (high exposure to iron ore and Brazil), whereas the likes of BHP/Rio are diversified in both geography and minerals. That concentration cuts both ways – it gives pure iron ore leverage (great in an upcycle, painful in a downturn). CMIN’s smaller size and liquidity might also contribute to higher stock volatility. On the positive side, its premium product strategy and vertical integration could carve out a profitable niche even if the iron ore market overall faces headwinds (e.g. selling higher-grade ore may cushion against lower-grade price discounts).

ADR Access and Investing from Abroad

Does CMIN3 have an ADR? – No, CSN Mineração does not currently have a sponsored ADR trading on NYSE/NASDAQ. The only related ADR is CSN’s own ADR (SID) on the NYSE , but that represents the parent steel company (which owns 69% of CMIN and also includes steel, cement, power assets, etc.). Investing in SID gives exposure to CSN Mineração indirectly (since mining is a major profit center for CSN), but it’s not a pure play and comes with the steel business cycles as well. As for unsponsored ADRs or OTC listings, as of this writing there isn’t an active U.S. OTC ticker for CSN Mineração. Some foreign stocks trade on OTC Markets as 5-letter tickers, but a search for CSN Mineração didn’t yield a known symbol – so if one exists, liquidity is likely very low.

How can foreign investors buy CMIN3? The primary way is to use a brokerage that offers access to the Brazilian stock market (B3). Many global brokerages allow international trading – for instance, Interactive Brokers, Charles Schwab’s global account, or local Brazilian brokers that open accounts for non-residents. You will typically need to register with the Brazilian CVM (the regulator) to get an investor ID for B3 trading – many brokerages handle this paperwork. Once set up, you can trade CMIN3 in Brazilian reais on the B3 exchange. Keep in mind liquidity is decent (CMIN3 is part of Brazil’s indices), but trading hours and currency conversion need consideration. Another route is to invest via emerging market funds/ETFs that include CMIN3. For example, some Latin America or Brazil-focused ETFs (managed by Vanguard, BlackRock, etc.) hold positions in CMIN3 . One could indirectly gain exposure by buying such an ETF on a U.S. exchange, though CMIN3 will be just a small piece of a broader fund.

If an investor is unable or unwilling to trade on B3, investing in CSN (SID) is an alternative to get partial exposure. CSN’s earnings are significantly driven by mining (CSN Mineração’s profits flow up to CSN), so SID’s performance correlates with iron ore prices too. However, note SID’s valuation and dividend are influenced by the steel business and its own capital allocation (CSN has other priorities like debt, new projects in cement and power, etc.). Thus, it’s not a one-to-one equivalent of CMIN3.

In summary, there is no straightforward ADR for CSN Mineração. Foreign investors can either trade directly in Brazil or invest via funds or the parent company’s ADR. Trading in Brazil might involve additional steps but provides the direct exposure to CMIN3. If doing so, be mindful of currency risk (BRL fluctuations against your home currency) and possibly lower transparency compared to U.S. markets (information will largely come from Portuguese/English filings on the company’s IR site). The upside is access to those high dividends and growth potential at the source.

Tax Implications for International Investors

Investing in Brazilian equities entails understanding Brazil’s tax rules on income and gains, which differ for residents vs. non-residents. The good news: Brazil has historically been friendly in not taxing certain investment income for foreigners. Specifically, non-resident investors (from most jurisdictions) have been exempt from Brazilian taxes on both dividends and capital gains from exchange-traded stocks . Brazil until now does not levy withholding tax on dividends paid by Brazilian companies – dividends are paid out of after-tax corporate profits and have been tax-free to recipients (domestic or foreign) under Brazilian law. Additionally, a foreign investor who registers with CVM as a 4,373 investor (the standard route for foreigners) is exempt from capital gains tax on trades of equities on the stock exchange (provided they are not investing from a tax-haven jurisdiction). This means if you buy CMIN3 and later sell at a profit, Brazil would not tax that capital gain (note: different rules may apply if, say, a foreigner owns a very large stake or in special cases, but for typical portfolio investors it’s exempt).

Interest on Equity (JCP): One caveat is that some of CSN Mineração’s payouts are classified as “Interest on Equity.” JCP is taxed differently – Brazil does impose a withholding tax on JCP distributions (generally 15% for non-residents, or 25% if you’re resident in a blacklisted tax haven). For instance, in July 2025 when CSN Mineração paid R$1.51 billion in total, about R$421 million of that was JCP (interest on equity) . The gross amount per share was declared (e.g. R$0.038659 per share for one JCP tranche) , but foreign investors would receive net of 15% tax on that portion. Pure dividends, however, had no Brazilian tax withheld. This distinction is important: effectively, most of CMIN’s large payouts were dividends (no tax) but the JCP portion suffers 15%. The company usually reports the per-share gross amount of JCP and it’s the investor’s responsibility to account for the withholding (your broker or the depositary should handle the deduction at source).

Changes on the horizon: Investors should be aware that Brazil is in the process of tax reform discussions. Notably, there have been proposals to introduce a withholding tax on dividends paid to foreign investors. As of March 2025, the government submitted a draft bill that would impose a 10% withholding tax on dividends to non-residents . Another proposal (Provisional Measure for 2026) suggested a unified 17.5% tax on various investment income . These measures are not law yet (and have seen delays and debates), but there is a real possibility that by 2026 onward, dividends to foreigners might face a 10% tax if the legislation passes . It’s important to monitor these developments. If implemented, foreign holders of CMIN3 would see Brazilian tax withheld from future dividend payments. Even with a 10% tax, the net yield could remain attractive (e.g. 15% gross becomes 13.5% net), but it does reduce the take-home.

Regardless of Brazilian taxation, your home country’s tax rules will also apply. For example, a U.S. investor receiving CMIN3 dividends (or JCP) will owe U.S. taxes on that income. The U.S. currently has no tax treaty with Brazil, meaning Brazilian dividends are generally treated as non-qualified income for U.S. tax (taxed at ordinary income rates). You can claim a foreign tax credit for any Brazilian tax withheld (e.g. the 15% on JCP, or any future dividend tax), to offset your U.S. tax bill. Non-U.S. investors should consult their local tax rules or a professional. Also note, if you trade CMIN3 and realize a capital gain, while Brazil might not tax it, your own country likely will tax your capital gains.

In summary, international investors in CMIN3 currently enjoy zero Brazilian tax on dividends and stock sale gains , with the only immediate Brazilian tax being the 15% on JCP distributions. This advantageous regime has been part of why foreign investment in Brazilian equities is attractive. However, tax laws are subject to change – a 10% withholding on dividends to foreigners is proposed (possibly from 2026) , so investors should stay informed. Always consider consulting a tax advisor, especially as cross-border taxation can be complex. The high yields from CMIN3 are excellent, but one must account for the net yield after any taxes in evaluating the investment.

Conclusion – Investment Considerations

CSN Mineração (CMIN3) presents a compelling case for long-term investors seeking exposure to iron ore with both growth potential and strong income. The company is embarking on a major expansion that could significantly boost output by 2027–2028, aiming to tap into the premium high-grade iron ore market. If successful, this expansion (Project P15) should drive capital appreciation through higher earnings and cash flow. At the same time, CSN Mineração has a track record of paying very attractive dividends, far above industry norms, which caters to investors looking for immediate returns (income) while waiting for growth to materialize. The balance sheet is robust (net cash) , and the backing of a large parent (CSN) plus strategic partners provides stability.

However, investors should weigh the risks. The fortunes of CMIN3 will remain heavily tied to iron ore prices, which are cyclical and largely driven by Chinese demand and global steel output. A downturn in iron ore prices would compress margins for all miners, CSN Mineração included, likely leading to lower profits and dividends. The company’s narrower focus (compared to diversified giants) means less buffering from other commodities. Additionally, the ambitious expansion brings execution risk: delays, cost overruns, or operational issues could affect the anticipated growth and require additional capital. Environmental and community challenges in Congonhas (where the mine is located) are also noted, and maintaining a social license is critical . From a market standpoint, CMIN3’s valuation is not “cheap” on earnings metrics relative to peers, so some of the good news may be priced in. There’s also liquidity and governance considerations: with ~69% control by CSN, minority investors rely on the parent’s management (so far aligned to return cash, but the parent could have other strategic interests).

On the flip side, peer comparisons show that CMIN3 offers something unique: a pure-play on high-quality Brazilian iron ore with a generous dividend payout. Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP are larger and arguably safer, but they won’t provide the same yield, and their upside might be more muted given size. For a foreign investor comfortable with emerging market exposure, CSN Mineração can be a high-reward proposition – just approached with appropriate awareness of the commodity cyclicality and Brazilian context. It would be prudent to position it as part of a diversified portfolio.

In conclusion, CSN Mineração is a noteworthy opportunity for long-term investors looking at Brazil’s mining sector. It combines the prospects of growth (through expansion plans to 68 Mtpa, new high-grade products) and income (historical  tenacious dividends) . Investing as a foreigner requires a bit of extra legwork (no direct ADR, potential tax changes), but for those bullish on iron ore or seeking high dividend yield equities, CMIN3 merits a closer look. As always, monitor the iron ore market trends and the progress of CSN Mineração’s projects – these will be the key drivers of its stock performance in the years ahead.

Sources: CSN Mineração Investor Relations – latest earnings releases and projections ; Company presentations and website ; News reports on expansion plans ; Reuters/market data on peer valuations ; B3 and regulatory information on foreign investor tax treatment .

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