Investment Analysis: Estapar (ALPK3) – Q3 2025 Update

Business Overview

Allpark Empreendimentos e Participações S.A. (“Estapar”) is Brazil’s largest parking and urban mobility operator, with a nationwide footprint in both off-street and on-street parking. The company was founded in 1981 and pioneered several parking innovations in Brazil, from automated parking systems to mobile payments for street parking . Today, Estapar manages an extensive portfolio of parking facilities and concession contracts, supported by a growing digital platform for drivers. Key aspects of Estapar’s operations include:

• Off-Street Parking: Estapar operates parking lots in private locations such as shopping malls, commercial office buildings, hospitals, airports, sports arenas and universities. These can be under “Leased and Managed” contracts (shorter-term agreements with property owners, requiring low capital outlay) or “Long-Term Contracts” (longer-term deals, often requiring Estapar to invest in infrastructure/upfront fees) . In recent years Estapar has expanded to large-scale operations like major airports and stadiums, solidifying its market leadership in private parking across Brazil . As of Q3 2025, Estapar had 804 active parking operations (+10% year-on-year) with 520,000 parking spaces under management across 105 cities in 19 states . This off-street segment ranges from small surface lots to multi-level garages, with Estapar often handling staffing, security, payment systems, and maintenance.
• On-Street Parking (Zona Azul): Estapar also holds municipal concessions to manage curbside parking in city streets. Under these on-street concession contracts, cities grant Estapar the right to operate paid public parking zones (branded “Zona Azul”) in exchange for revenue sharing and infrastructure investments (parking meters, signage, enforcement technology, etc.) . Estapar was a first mover in Brazil’s on-street parking by operating parking meters and introducing mobile app payments for street parking . Currently it runs Digital Zona Azul programs in 19 cities including São Paulo (the country’s largest program) . This provides a steady concession revenue stream and synergizes with Estapar’s digital apps (users can pay for street parking via the app). On-street operations are typically long-term (5–20 year) concessions with diversified capex and technology requirements .
• Public Concession Parking: In addition to city street parking, Estapar manages off-street public concessions – parking facilities owned by public authorities but operated by Estapar under contract . Examples include underground municipal garages, airport parking lots, and other government-owned parking complexes awarded via bids. These contracts often entail significant up-front investment and longer durations (up to 20 years) . Through consortiums, Estapar helped develop major public garage projects in Brazil’s largest cities and airports in prior decades . This segment is smaller in number of sites (e.g. airport garages are few but large) – Q3 data show off-street public concession spaces were ~11.5k (steady year-on-year) – but they reinforce Estapar’s presence in strategic high-traffic hubs.
• Digital Mobility Platform (Zul+): Estapar has been transforming itself into an “autotech” player through its Zul+ app and related digital services. Zul+ is a mobile platform that integrates multiple car-related services, positioning Estapar beyond physical parking into digital mobility. Drivers can use Zul+ to find and pre-book parking spaces, pay for on-street parking, pay parking tickets and vehicle taxes, purchase car insurance, and even order an RFID toll tag for automated payments . Zul+ has become a significant revenue contributor – in Q3 2025, Estapar’s digital channels (Zul+ app, the Zona Azul SP app, and website) accounted for 22.2% of total revenue . The Zul+ app has reached 8.3 million total users and 2.5 million monthly active users as of Sep 2025 , reflecting rapid adoption. Year-to-date 2025, Zul+ generated R$26.4 million in net revenue, up ~20% vs the prior year , driven by services like insurance sales, vehicle fee payments, and the “Zul+ Tag” for toll roads. Estapar’s digital strategy not only enhances customer convenience but also creates a scalable, asset-light revenue stream that complements its core parking business.
• New Mobility Ventures (EV Charging): As part of its broader mobility ecosystem, Estapar is investing in electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure via its subsidiary Zletric. By Q3 2025, Zletric had deployed 1,337 charging stations across 85 cities and 14 states in Brazil, including 33 fast-charging points . While still in early stages, this network grew net revenue to R$6.5 million (YTD 2025), up 42.6% year-on-year . Estapar is leveraging its parking locations to host chargers and forming partnerships (e.g. a recent interoperability deal with VoltBras to link over 2,500 charging points ) to position itself in the EV era. Though EV charging is a small portion of revenue today, it represents a strategic expansion of Estapar’s urban mobility platform.

With nearly 40 years of operating history, Estapar has built a unique integrated model: a dominant physical network of parking operations coupled with digital technology offerings. The company’s scale (over 800 sites and 500k+ spaces nationwide) and diversified portfolio (20+ different types of client sectors from hospitals to shopping centers) provide a strong competitive moat in Brazil . Estapar employs around 6,000 staff and maintains a leading market share, being larger than the next several parking operators in Latin America combined. Its vision is to “expand and consolidate leadership in parking and urban mobility”, continuing to grow both its parking footprint and digital solutions .

Latest Financial Results – Q3 2025 Highlights

Estapar released its 3Q25 earnings on November 5, 2025, showing robust growth and improving profitability . The company achieved record quarterly revenue and continued margin expansion despite Brazil’s high interest rate environment. Key financial results for the quarter (3Q 2025) include:

• Record Net Revenue: R$486.2 million for the quarter, a +21.7% increase vs 3Q24 . Strong top-line growth was driven by higher parking volumes and new contract additions across all segments. Notably, Estapar inaugurated 30 new operations during Q3 alone, bringing year-to-date openings to 73 (43% higher than 2024’s pace) . This portfolio growth, combined with pricing adjustments and recovering demand (e.g. more office workers driving post-pandemic), lifted revenue to an all-time high for a single quarter.
• EBITDA and Margins: Adjusted EBITDA was R$96.7 million, up +25.1% year-on-year . This marked an EBITDA margin of roughly 19.9% (slightly higher than a year ago), reflecting operating leverage as revenue growth outpaced costs. Adjusted EBIT grew even faster to R$53.0 million (+50.5% YoY) , as depreciation and lease expenses (which are significant in this business) rose slower than revenue. Management highlighted that focusing on asset-light expansion (more “Leased & Managed” sites) helped boost margins, since that model requires less capex and yields quicker payback . The gross profit margin also improved (31.6% in 3Q25) amid cost controls . In sum, Estapar is showing operating leverage: incremental revenues are translating to higher profitability, thanks to disciplined cost management and higher-margin business mix.
• Net Income: Estapar recorded a net profit of R$7.8 million in 3Q25, a jump of +151.8% compared to R$3.1 million in 3Q24 . While the net income is still modest in absolute terms, it’s an important milestone – the company has now posted positive earnings for the quarter, year-to-date 2025, and on a last-twelve-months basis . This reverses a history of losses (Estapar had net losses in prior years following its 2020 IPO), indicating a turnaround to profitability. The sharp improvement was aided by EBITDA growth and lower financing costs. Notably, adjusted operating cash flow was strong at R$153.1 million in the quarter , allowing Estapar to pay down debt.
• Portfolio Activity & Occupancy: Operational metrics underpinned the financial results. Occupancy and usage rates improved as urban mobility rebounded – for example, the return-to-office trend lifted parking volumes in commercial buildings, and traffic in city centers boosted demand for Zona Azul street parking . During Q3, Estapar added 7.6k new parking spaces in Leased/Managed sites, especially in healthcare, office, and shopping mall locations . Churn (loss of contracts) remained extremely low at 0.30% for the quarter, reflecting successful renewals of expiring contracts and high client retention . By end of September, the company managed 804 locations (up from 731 a year prior) with 520k parking spaces (+6% YoY) – indicating both organic growth and stable occupancy across the network. The diversified portfolio (sites in 105 municipalities) also means no single segment dominates the revenue, which adds resilience . In the important shopping mall segment, Estapar reached 90 malls in operation (83,771 spaces) and grew this segment’s revenue contribution to 21.8% , thanks to new flagship wins (more on that below).
• Digital Adoption Metrics: Estapar’s digital initiatives continued to gain traction, contributing meaningfully to growth. The Zul+ app and other digital channels represented 22.2% of total revenue in 3Q25, up from ~19–20% a year ago . This signifies that over one-fifth of Estapar’s sales now come via digital platforms (e.g. app payments for parking, value-added services), an impressive integration of tech into a traditionally physical business. The Zul+ application’s user base hit 8.3 million registered users (2.5 million monthly active users), reflecting its status as one of Brazil’s leading mobility apps . Importantly, Zul+ is driving incremental revenue: in the first 9 months of 2025 it generated R$26.4M, growing ~20% YoY by offering new services (insurance sales, fine payments, etc.) . This digital growth not only diversifies Estapar’s income but also supports customer engagement and loyalty (e.g. one app for multiple driver needs). The company’s strategic partnership with ConectCar, announced in Q3, enabled Zul+ to offer an improved toll/parking tag product – valid at all Brazilian toll roads and 1,300+ parking lots – further enhancing the app’s utility . Overall, digital adoption is a bright spot in Estapar’s results, as higher app usage often correlates with lower operating costs (e.g. less need for on-site cashiers) and cross-selling opportunities.
• Debt and Balance Sheet: Estapar used its strong cash generation to deleverage in the quarter. Net debt fell by 7.8% in 3Q25 vs 2Q25, reaching approximately R$749 million . The company has been actively managing liabilities – refinancing loans and negotiating better terms as creditors gain confidence in Estapar’s turnaround . This helped reduce the average cost of debt to CDI + 1.62%, an 88 basis point improvement from a year ago . With Brazil’s base interest rate (CDI/Selic) now trending downward from prior highs, Estapar should benefit from lower interest expense going forward. The debt maturity profile has also been extended, giving the company breathing room to invest in growth . Importantly, Estapar’s leverage is coming down at the same time that EBITDA is rising – a positive combination for equity value. The company has no liquidity crunch (it’s generating over R$150M operating cash per quarter now) and appears on track to continue deleveraging, which will further reduce financial costs and boost net margins.

In summary, Q3 2025 showed significant momentum for Estapar – double-digit revenue growth, expanding EBITDA and margins, and a swing to positive net income. Management noted that this is the continuation of a trend (trailing 12-month EBITDA and earnings have been consistently improving) and evidences the success of their strategic focus on organic growth and cost discipline . The company achieved these results despite Brazil’s macro challenges (inflation and high interest rates earlier in the year), indicating resilience in demand for its parking and mobility services. With record revenues and improving profitability, Estapar is emerging from its post-IPO investment phase into a cash-generating, profitable enterprise.

Strategic Commentary and Recent Developments

Estapar’s management provided additional commentary on strategy and outlook in the Q3 2025 earnings release and conference call. Key strategic themes include:

• Portfolio Expansion and Contract Wins: Estapar continues to aggressively grow its parking network. The company opened 30 new operations in 3Q25 across 14 cities, and management indicated they are on track to reach ~100 new site inaugurations in 2025 . This is a rapid expansion pace (for context, Estapar had 776 operations at the end of 1Q25 , so adding 100 in one year is ~13% growth in footprint). These new wins span high-demand segments such as hospitals, offices, shopping malls and leisure venues . Recent notable additions include two major São Paulo state shopping centers: Shopping Aricanduva in São Paulo city (8,084 parking spaces) inaugurated in October, and Novo Shopping Ribeirão Preto (4,015 spaces) in November . Gaining these large mall contracts is strategically important – shopping centers now contribute 21.8% of Estapar’s revenue , and typically involve long-term agreements with stable cash flows. Estapar also renewed key contracts like the parking concession at Shopping Center Norte in São Paulo (8,917 spaces) , demonstrating its ability to retain clients in competitive bids. Management emphasized that they treat every contract renewal very seriously (escalating it to executive level attention) to ensure they “grow without losing any operation” . This strategy has paid off with churn kept to near zero. The combined effect of new wins and renewals is a steadily growing portfolio that reinforces Estapar’s market leadership.
• Asset-Light Growth Focus: A strategic pivot has been to prioritize growth in Leased & Managed operations (as opposed to capital-intensive concessions). In 1Q25, management noted this asset-light segment had grown to 58.8% of the portfolio, reducing exposure to heavy capex and leverage risk . The trend continued through 2025 – many of the new 100 operations are leased/manage deals that require little upfront investment but add revenue quickly. This approach improves return on capital and shortens payback periods . It also complements Estapar’s financial strategy of deleveraging; by not burdening the balance sheet with large new debts for concessions, the company can use cash flow to pay down existing debt. CEO Emílio Sanches remarked that Estapar’s SG&A structure and overhead have not grown in proportion to revenue – G&A as a % of revenue actually fell to ~7% – meaning the platform has operating leverage to absorb more sites without a big cost jump . In short, Estapar is adding lots of locations in an efficient way, which bodes well for future margins.
• Digital and Mobility Initiatives: Strategically, Estapar is positioning itself as a broader urban mobility provider, not just a parking lot company. The Zul+ digital platform is central to this vision. Management highlighted that digital product sales (via Zul+) grew over 30% and reached more than R$7 million in the recent quarter , from services like insurance and payments embedded in the app. They expressed confidence that Zul+ can become the “go-to” super-app for drivers, noting it already accounts for about 20% of company revenue . A major development in Q3 was the partnership with ConectCar: instead of operating its own toll tag system, Estapar teamed up with this established provider, effectively outsourcing the tag backend to ConectCar and rebranding it as Zul+ Tag . This move expands coverage (the new tag works on all toll roads nationwide and many parking facilities) and improves service for users, which should drive more adoption of Zul+ for payments. It also reduces Estapar’s need to invest heavily in tag infrastructure. Similarly, the agreement with VoltBras in October links Zletric’s EV chargers with a larger interoperable network, making charging more convenient for EV drivers . These partnerships illustrate Estapar’s asset-light philosophy in digital expansion – piggybacking on partners to enhance its platform rather than building everything in-house from scratch.
• Guidance and Outlook: While Estapar does not provide formal numerical guidance, management’s tone is optimistic. On the Q2 call (August 2025), the CEO stated “this year, we will certainly post good deliveries and also deliver good results… we have the potential to deliver a great result at the end of the year” . That confidence was borne out by the strong Q3 results. Looking ahead, Estapar signaled that it intends to continue opening ~100 new operations per year for the coming years , sustaining a high growth rate. The company sees room especially in underpenetrated cities and new property sectors. Management also noted that Brazil’s macro environment is turning more favorable – with interest rates beginning to decline, financing costs will ease, boosting net income and enabling potential dividend payments in the future (once consistent profits are established). They also pointed out improving demand trends: for example, office building parking volumes are rising as work-from-home recedes, and event venue traffic will normalize after a period of fewer events (3Q25 had some impact from the timing of sports events) . Estapar has built significant operating leverage (corporate costs grew much slower than revenue), so each incremental real of revenue in 2026+ should translate to higher EBITDA margin . Management’s strategic aim is to balance growth with profitability, i.e. continue grabbing market share but without sacrificing margins or overleveraging. They have also not ruled out M&A as a growth avenue – the parking sector in Brazil is fragmented beyond Estapar, and the company hinted it will consider acquisitions or new concession bids if attractive . Overall, the strategic message is that Estapar is in expansion mode, yet with a disciplined eye on returns and cash flow.
• ESG and Operational Excellence: Estapar received a “Great Place to Work” certification for the 4th year in a row in 2025 , underlining its focus on human capital and a positive work culture. This is notable in an industry (parking services) that relies on thousands of front-line employees – low turnover and good training can directly impact service quality and contract retention. The company also boasts various initiatives in sustainability (for instance, piloting solar-powered facilities and offering EV charging as mentioned). In Q3, Estapar opened the first 100% electric charging hub in southern Brazil (Porto Alegre) with fast chargers operating 24/7 . Such steps bolster Estapar’s image as a forward-looking mobility player, potentially helping in concession bidding (where ESG credentials are increasingly valued by governments). While these factors are harder to quantify, they contribute to the company’s competitive advantage and long-term positioning.

In summary, Estapar’s recent strategic moves and commentary indicate confidence in sustained growth. The company is winning big contracts (especially in shopping centers and city parking), investing in digital innovation, and tightening its financial efficiency. Management appears intent on making Estapar a one-stop urban mobility platform – not just parking lots, but apps, data, and services that deepen the customer relationship. With core operations now profitable and scalable, Estapar is entering a new phase where it can focus on smart growth initiatives (like tech partnerships and selective expansion) without the overhang of past debt or losses.

Expansion Plans and Future Initiatives

Looking ahead, Estapar has outlined several expansion avenues and initiatives to drive growth in the coming years:

• Continued Parking Network Expansion: The company plans to keep adding ~100 new parking operations annually over the next few years . This is an ambitious target equating to roughly 10–15% growth in locations per year. Growth will come from multiple fronts: (1) Greenfield contracts – bidding on new concession projects (e.g. municipalities privatizing street parking or building new public garages), (2) Commercial deals – signing lease/management agreements with private property owners (e.g. new malls, hospitals, office towers, mixed-use developments), and (3) Potential M&A – acquiring smaller parking operators or portfolios to fold into Estapar’s platform. Estapar’s nationwide presence and reputation as the market leader give it an edge in many negotiations. For example, as Brazil’s economy expands, new shopping centers and airports often seek out experienced operators like Estapar to manage parking. The company’s expansion strategy is disciplined: they focus on contracts that meet profitability hurdles and have been favoring low-capex models (managed or revenue-share contracts) unless the project is highly strategic. Geographically, Estapar is already in 19 states and will continue densifying its presence in major urban centers while also entering additional mid-sized cities where it sees demand for organized parking. Brazil’s ongoing urbanization and traffic growth provide a tailwind – more cars on the road means more parking needs. Additionally, if state or city governments privatize parking assets (a trend in some places to raise revenues), Estapar will likely participate in those concession auctions. In short, investors can expect Estapar to steadily grow its footprint, with an eye on reaching over 1,000 operations in the next couple of years if momentum continues.
• Technology & Digital Infrastructure: On the technology front, Estapar will keep enhancing its digital platform and IT infrastructure to support growth. This includes upgrading parking management systems (e.g. license plate recognition, occupancy sensors), improving the Zul+ app with new features, and integrating data analytics to optimize pricing and operations. The company has mentioned implementing dynamic pricing and online reservation systems to increase occupancy – for instance, offering discounts for off-peak hours or allowing drivers to pre-book spots via the app . These tech-driven strategies can boost utilization and customer satisfaction. Estapar is also likely to expand payment integrations (e.g. more digital wallets, loyalty programs, etc. linked to Zul+). Another focus is the “single platform” experience – ensuring that whether a customer is paying for street parking, accessing a garage, or using a toll road, they can do it seamlessly through Estapar’s ecosystem. By investing in a robust digital backbone now, Estapar can handle the scale of hundreds more locations without a linear increase in overhead. The company’s emphasis on innovation is encapsulated in its stated guideline to “drive the digital platform” and “advance in the AutoTech value chain” . This could imply future moves like exploring mobility-as-a-service offerings, deeper data monetization (e.g. providing smart city data to municipalities), or even collaborations in areas like ride-share parking solutions. Estapar’s acquisition of the Zul+ platform a few years ago has already paid off, and further tech-related investments (either in-house or via partnerships) will be a key expansion pillar going forward.
• Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging Expansion: Through Zletric, Estapar has made clear its intention to be a leader in EV charging infrastructure in Brazil. The expansion plan here involves broadening the charging station network both within Estapar’s own facilities and in external high-traffic locations. By Q3 2025 Zletric had 1,337 charging points; this number will grow via installation of new stations at parking lots (Estapar can allocate space for chargers at many of its garages) and through partnerships. The VoltBras interoperability agreement is a model of the latter – instead of building every station itself, Zletric can integrate third-party stations into its network, giving users a unified access/payment system . Estapar is likely to strike more such partnerships to rapidly scale coverage. We can also expect more “charging hubs” like the one opened in Porto Alegre, possibly in other major cities – dedicated EV charging centers that raise Estapar’s profile among EV drivers . As EV adoption in Brazil is projected to rise in the coming 5–10 years, Estapar’s early investment positions it to capture a new revenue stream. The company could potentially benefit from government incentives or contracts as well, if cities look to private players to deploy public charging infrastructure. While currently EV charging revenue is relatively small (R$6.5M YTD in 2025) , the strategic value is high: it future-proofs Estapar’s parking garages (making them EV-friendly) and attracts a higher-income customer segment. Over the next 3–5 years, Zletric could be scaled up or even spun-off/partnered (if, say, an energy company wanted a stake) to accelerate growth. Estapar’s expansion plan thus treats EV charging as a long-term growth option, synergistic with its core business – drivers charging their cars will often do so while parked in Estapar facilities.
• Geographic and International Expansion: Domestically, Estapar’s focus is on Brazil, where it still has substantial room to grow in many cities. It currently dominates the formal parking sector in Brazil and is the largest in Latin America . In the medium term, the company could evaluate expansion to other Latin American markets as well. Neighboring countries like Chile, Colombia, or Mexico have large cities with parking needs and some concession opportunities. Estapar’s expertise could travel, though such moves would require studying local market dynamics and competition. There is no official word of international projects yet – and the Easy Brazil Investing context suggests the primary interest is Brazil – but it’s a conceivable longer-term expansion vector. More immediately, Estapar will deepen its reach in Brazil’s biggest metropolitan areas (São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Brasília, etc.), where car ownership and congestion trends ensure high demand for organized parking. Additionally, new infrastructure developments (airports, stadiums) and smart-city initiatives in Brazil could provide expansion avenues. For example, if new airports terminals or urban redevelopment projects include parking concessions, Estapar will likely be a bidder. The pipeline for public concessions can be lumpy (dependent on government tenders), but Estapar’s recent track record – like winning São Paulo’s huge Zona Azul contract in 2016 and others – positions it well for future bids.
• Improving Infrastructure & Services: Expansion is not only about more locations; it’s also about enhancing the existing portfolio. Estapar will invest in refurbishing facilities (better lighting, security, signage), automating more parking sites with technology (to reduce manual ticketing and improve throughput), and possibly adding new revenue streams at parking locations. An example is the concept of multi-service hubs: using parking garages as points for last-mile delivery logistics, vehicle inspection centers, or advertising space. Each large parking facility can be seen as a valuable urban asset – Estapar could partner with e-commerce or car service companies to utilize these spaces beyond just car storage. While not explicitly detailed in the earnings, such ideas align with the company’s goal to “enhance value offerings for customers” and monetize its footprint more fully . On the customer service side, Estapar is likely to roll out loyalty programs or subscription packages (e.g. monthly passes, corporate plans) more widely, which can lock in recurring revenue. The high level of customer retention (churn ~0.3% in Q3) suggests that once Estapar secures a contract or a location, it tends to keep it – by maintaining good client relations and service levels. Therefore, part of the expansion plan is simply keeping existing clients happy so that as they grow (think a hospital adding a new wing with more parking, or a mall extension), Estapar captures that growth too.

Overall, Estapar’s expansion plans are multi-faceted but boil down to leveraging its leadership position to capture outsized growth in a recovering Brazilian economy. The strategy is to grow aggressively but intelligently – focusing on high-return projects, using partnerships to extend capabilities (digital, EV), and maintaining operational excellence to keep contracts and win new ones. For foreign investors, this growth story means Estapar could significantly scale its revenue and earnings base in coming years, provided it executes well on these plans. The company’s moves into digital services and EV infrastructure also give it exposure to faster-growing segments of the mobility market, potentially deserving a higher valuation multiple if those bets pay off. There are, of course, execution risks (e.g. overextension, competition, regulatory changes), but the current roadmap presented by management is one of expansion with discipline.

Peer Comparison – Valuation and Business Metrics

To put Estapar’s business and valuation in context, it’s useful to compare it with peers both in Brazil and internationally. Direct publicly traded comparables in the parking sector are limited (many parking companies are private), but we can look at similar mobility/infrastructure operators. Below is a comparison of Estapar with a few peers:

Company	Market Cap	EV/EBITDA	P/E	P/B	Dividend Yield
Estapar (ALPK3, Brazil)	~R$750 million (US$150M)	~6× (adj. EBITDA, 2025e) ¹	N/M ²	~2.1×	0% (no dividends)
SP Plus Corp. (SP, USA)	~$1.1 billion	~11× (EV/EBITDA TTM)	~35× TTM ³	~4× ³	0% (no dividend)
VINCI SA (DG, Europe) – entire group	~€60 billion	~6.8× (EV/EBITDA TTM)	~12× TTM ⁴	~2× ⁴	~3% yield ⁴
CCR S.A. (CCRO3, Brazil) – infrastructure	~R$31 billion	~8× (EV/EBITDA TTM)	N/A ⁵	~1.5× ⁵	~2.3%

Notes:

¹ Estapar’s EV/EBITDA is calculated on an “adjusted” basis excluding IFRS-16 effects. If one uses IFRS EBITDA (which capitalizes lease expenses), the multiple is even lower (~4×) given Estapar’s large lease obligations. The ~6× figure is a normalized view using cash EBITDA. This is markedly cheaper than peers, reflecting Estapar’s smaller size and historical leverage, but also suggesting potential upside if it continues improving earnings.

² “N/M” = Not meaningful. Estapar’s trailing P/E is not meaningful as earnings over the last 12 months were roughly around breakeven (the company just turned profitable). Based on forward estimates, P/E would still be high. As profitability grows in coming years, this metric should normalize.

³ SP Plus (a leading U.S. parking operator) currently trades around 10–12× EV/EBITDA. Its P/E is relatively high on a trailing basis (~35×) due to some one-time charges and the impact of the pandemic on 2021–2022 earnings. On a forward basis, SP+ P/E is expected to be closer to the mid-teens (the company guided ~$130M EBITDA for 2023 and is recovering). SP+ has a similar business (managing parking garages and valet services in the U.S.) but is more asset-light (no major concession investments). It also does not pay a dividend, reinvesting in operations.

⁴ VINCI is a French conglomerate with a large concessions & construction business. It operates highways, airports, and formerly parking (VINCI Park, now rebranded Indigo, was partly spun off). VINCI’s overall multiples – ~7× EV/EBITDA and ~12× P/E – reflect its stable, diversified infrastructure cash flows . VINCI does pay a dividend (around 3% yield) as a mature company. While not a pure parking operator, VINCI provides a benchmark for valuing long-term concession assets in developed markets. Estapar, being far smaller and solely focused on parking/mobility, may achieve higher growth but currently trades at a fraction of VINCI’s scale and a lower multiple, perhaps due to Brazil-specific risks and its shorter operating history as a public firm.

⁵ CCR (recently renamed Motiva Infraestrutura) is one of Brazil’s largest infrastructure concession companies, operating toll roads, transit systems, and airports. It’s not a parking company, but we include it as a domestic peer to gauge how Brazilian infrastructure assets are valued. CCR’s EV/EBITDA is around 8–10× , and it has a modest P/B (~1.5×) and dividend yield ~2% . CCR’s P/E has been volatile due to earnings swings (in some periods it’s in single-digits). Compared to CCR, Estapar is smaller and historically had more debt relative to earnings, which likely explains its lower multiple. However, both companies share exposure to Brazilian economic conditions and interest rates.

Analysis:

From the above, Estapar appears undervalued relative to peers on an EV/EBITDA basis. Trading at ~5–6× EBITDA, it’s at a steep discount to SP Plus (~11×) and CCR (~8–9×), and below even the large-cap VINCI (7×). Part of this discount is due to Estapar’s prior leverage and nascent profitability – investors may have been cautious. Another factor is liquidity: Estapar’s market cap ($150M) is much smaller, potentially carrying a liquidity premium (higher cost of capital). Additionally, Estapar’s hybrid model (mix of real concessions and service contracts) may not yet be fully appreciated by the market.

However, if Estapar continues its earnings growth trajectory, valuation multiples could rerate higher. Even moving to, say, 8× EBITDA (still below global peers) would imply a significantly higher stock price given current earnings levels. Conversely, one must consider Brazil risk: higher local interest rates and political risk can depress valuations. Indeed, Estapar’s stock (ALPK3) has been volatile since its IPO in 2020, trading from R$10+ down to R$2 and now around R$4. Investors demanded a high earnings yield to compensate for macro risks. But with interest rates now falling and Estapar proving its profitability, there is a case for multiple expansion.

In terms of business model, Estapar and SP Plus are comparable as pure parking services companies – though SP Plus is entirely asset-light (management contracts with private owners), whereas Estapar also invests in concessions and digital. VINCI and CCR are broader infrastructure plays; Estapar’s growth potential is higher, but its business is less diversified. It’s also worth noting that barriers to entry in parking can be high on the concession side (long-term contracts) but lower on the private contract side (building owners can switch operators). Estapar’s scale and tech offering (Zul+) give it a competitive edge, akin to how SP Plus uses technology in the U.S. to differentiate. Internationally, other peers include Indigo Park (the global parking firm formerly part of VINCI – not public, but known to trade around ~12× EBITDA in private markets) and APCOA (a large European parking operator, private). Estapar’s current valuation suggests the market isn’t fully pricing in its digital platform and growth – it’s valued more like a slow-growing utility. If Estapar delivers consistent earnings and perhaps initiates dividends down the line, it could be reconsidered more as a growth-at-a-reasonable-price story.

Valuation Snapshot

At the time of writing, Estapar’s stock (ALPK3) trades around R$4.05 per share, which gives it a market capitalization of roughly R$750–800 million (approximately US$150 million) . The enterprise value (EV), adding net debt (~R$749M as of Q3) to the equity, is about R$1.5–1.6 billion. Key valuation metrics based on trailing figures and latest results are:

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E): Not meaningful on a TTM basis, as Estapar only recently turned profitable. If we annualize Q3’s net income run-rate (~R$7.8M per quarter), the stock would be at a very high P/E. However, net income is expected to ramp up rapidly (consensus/analysts anticipate 2025 full-year earnings to be positive and growing in 2026). So P/E should improve accordingly. Given Estapar’s growth, many analysts might prefer EV/EBITDA or Price/Sales for now.
• EV/EBITDA: Around 5× to 6× using 2025 estimated EBITDA. Using the last 12 months adjusted EBITDA (approx ~R$320M), EV/EBITDA is roughly 5×. Even using a more conservative EBITDA (e.g. cash EBITDA excluding IFRS16), it’s in the mid-single-digit range. This is low by both historical and international standards for a company growing EBITDA 20%+ annually. It suggests the market may have lingering concerns (perhaps macro or execution risk), or simply that Estapar is underfollowed. Notably, as the company de-levers, equity holders should get more of the enterprise value pie (EV will decline with debt paydown, boosting equity value if EBITDA holds).
• Price-to-Sales (P/S): Approximately 0.4× (trailing 12-month revenue of ~R$1.8B vs market cap ~R$0.75B) . This is a very low sales multiple, reflecting the relatively low net margins historically. But as margins improve, a low P/S could signal undervaluation. By contrast, many global peers in concessions or services trade at 1× to 2× revenue. Estapar’s P/S of 0.4× indicates investors are only paying $0.40 for each $1 of sales, implying either those sales were low margin or that the market expects challenges – a gap that can close if profit margins continue rising.
• Price-to-Book (P/B): About 2.1× book value . Estapar’s equity book value is around R$350M. A 2.1× P/B is modest, and considering that book value might understate some assets (e.g. the intangible value of concessions and the Zul+ platform), this multiple doesn’t seem stretched. However, it’s higher than some larger infrastructure firms in Brazil (CCR’s P/B ~1.5×). One reason is Estapar’s book equity was eroded by losses in earlier years, so the current book is somewhat low – making P/B appear higher. If the company retains earnings going forward, book value will grow, likely bringing P/B down.
• Dividend Yield: Currently 0%. Estapar has not been paying dividends, as it has been reinvesting cash and also was loss-making until recently. Brazilian corporations historically pay out dividends or interest-on-capital once profitable, but Estapar’s priority is to strengthen its balance sheet. The company has accumulated tax losses from prior years, which means even as it turns profitable, it may not owe much tax for a while – this could facilitate reinvesting cash flow. In the medium term (perhaps 2026+), if profitability stabilizes, Estapar could start distributing a portion of earnings. For now, investors should view this as a growth stock with no dividend. (By comparison, some mature infrastructure peers like VINCI yield ~3%, and Brazilian peers like CCR yield ~2–3%, but those are much larger, steadier businesses.)
• NAV/Sum-of-the-Parts: Some analysts value Estapar by summing the present value of its long-term concessions plus the parking management business and the digital segment. While we don’t have a published NAV figure to cite, qualitatively: the on-street concessions (like São Paulo’s Zona Azul) are valuable long-term cash generators, and one could DCF those cash flows. The digital platform Zul+ could arguably be valued on a tech multiple (e.g. X times its revenue or user base) separately from the parking ops. If we were to do a rough sum-of-parts: the core parking EBITDA business (excluding digital) maybe at a higher multiple (say 6–8×), plus the digital (which at R$26M revenue YTD might be small now but high growth), plus the EV stake. This likely would yield a value higher than the current EV. In essence, one could argue there is hidden value in Estapar’s emerging businesses not reflected in the stock. The market may start recognizing this if Zul+ and Zletric metrics continue to climb.

In conclusion, Estapar’s valuation appears attractive for long-term investors who believe in the company’s growth story. The stock is trading at a discount to intrinsic value based on standard multiples, possibly due to its short track record of profitability and Brazil-specific discount factors (e.g. higher required returns). As the company delivers consistent earnings, we could see multiple expansion. Conversely, risks like economic downturn or operational missteps could keep the valuation depressed. We’ll discuss scenario-based return outlooks in a later section.

For global investors, it’s worth noting currency: Estapar’s financials are in Brazilian Real (BRL). The BRL has fluctuated – currency movements will impact USD-based returns. A strengthening Real (if Brazil’s economy and rates improve) would amplify local stock gains for a foreign investor, whereas a weakening Real could eat into returns.

Investment Access for International Investors

How can foreign investors buy ALPK3? Estapar’s common shares trade only on Brazil’s B3 stock exchange (São Paulo) under the ticker ALPK3. There is currently no U.S. ADR (American Depositary Receipt) or internationally listed depository receipt for Estapar. Likewise, no BDR (Brazilian Depositary Receipt) exists for Estapar in other markets. This means global investors who want exposure must purchase the stock on the Brazilian market.

Practically, there are a few ways to do this:

• Global Brokerage Platforms: Some international brokerages (e.g. Interactive Brokers) provide direct access to B3, allowing investors to buy Brazilian stocks like ALPK3 in their home account. If using such a platform, one would typically trade in BRL and the shares would be held in the Brazilian market (custodied via the broker’s arrangements). Check that your broker offers B3 trading and what fees/currency conversion rates apply.
• Opening a Brazilian Brokerage Account: Investors can open an account with a Brazilian broker that caters to foreigners. Firms like XP Investimentos, Itaú, or BTG Pactual have channels for non-residents to invest, but the process involves paperwork (a foreign investor needs a CPF – Brazilian tax ID – and a local custodian). The Brazilian brokerage would then execute trades on B3 on your behalf. This route is more involved and likely only worth it for larger investments or those seeking broad exposure to Brazilian equities.
• Through Latin America Funds or ETFs: While there’s no specific Estapar ADR, one could gain indirect exposure if Estapar were part of a Brazilian small-cap ETF or Latin America fund. As of now, Estapar is a relatively small company, so it’s not a major component of broad Brazil ETFs (like iShares Brazil EWZ). Some actively managed emerging market funds might hold it, but for an investor who specifically wants Estapar, direct ownership is the most straightforward.

In summary, ALPK3 is accessible to foreign investors via the Brazilian market. It requires an ability to trade on B3 either directly or through an intermediary. Investors should be mindful of liquidity – Estapar’s trading volume is moderate; it’s not among the most liquid B3 stocks, so use limit orders and be conscious of bid-ask spreads. Also, Brazilian market trading hours and holidays differ from U.S./Europe, which is a consideration.

On the plus side, Brazil has no restrictions on foreign ownership of this stock (foreigners can own 100% of a Brazilian company’s float, except in a few regulated sectors like media – parking is unregulated in that sense). Settlement is done in BM&FBovespa’s clearing system, and many global custodians (Citibank, etc.) operate in Brazil, so institutional investors often access B3 directly under the Resolution 4,373 framework. For an individual investor, using a platform like Interactive Brokers may be the easiest route to get ALPK3 exposure without setting up Brazilian tax residency status.

One more consideration: currency exchange. If you’re investing in Estapar from abroad, you’ll likely need to convert your funds into Brazilian Reais to purchase the stock, and convert back when selling. This introduces FX risk. Some brokers will handle the FX conversion automatically (at published rates plus spread), others let you hold a BRL balance. Brazil has a financial transaction tax on some FX flows, but equity investments by foreigners are exempt from IOF tax on the inbound transfer for stocks (the IOF tax on stock market inflows is currently 0%). Repatriating funds on sale also has no IOF. So transactional friction is minimal beyond standard FX spreads.

To summarize, Estapar is investable for foreigners, but only via Brazil’s exchange. Ensure you have a broker with B3 access. There’s no ADR shortcut, but Brazil’s market is reasonably accessible these days. The lack of an ADR might contribute to lower international awareness – something that could change if the company grows (they might list an ADR in the future if demand arises, but nothing official yet).

Tax Implications for Foreign Investors

Brazil’s tax regime for foreign investors in stocks has historically been quite favorable, and Estapar’s case is no different. Key tax considerations include:

• Withholding Tax on Dividends: Currently, Brazil does not levy any withholding tax on dividends paid by Brazilian companies to either resident or non-resident (foreign) investors . Dividends are paid out of after-tax corporate profits and are exempt from additional tax for the recipient. This is a distinctive feature of Brazil (many countries tax dividends for foreigners, but Brazil has had 0% dividend WHT for years). So if/when Estapar starts paying dividends, foreign shareholders should receive the full amount without Brazilian tax deduction. (Do note: Brazil has been discussing tax reforms. As of late 2025, a tax bill (PL 1.087/25) is in progress that proposes a 10% withholding tax on dividends to non-residents starting in 2026 . If that law is enacted, foreign investors would see a 10% tax on dividends going forward, though certain sovereign or pension fund investors might be exempt. Profits earned up to 2025 would remain exempt until 2028 under transition rules . We recommend monitoring this development, but as of now (Q4 2025) no dividend tax is yet in effect.)*
• Tax on Capital Gains: Foreign investors have a major advantage in Brazil: capital gains from selling Brazilian stocks on the exchange are generally exempt from Brazilian taxation for non-residents . Under Resolution 4,373, if you are registered as a foreign investor from a country that is not a tax haven, you pay 0% Brazilian capital gains tax on trades of equities on B3 . This means if you buy ALPK3 and later sell at a profit, Brazil will not tax that gain (no withholding, no filing needed for capital gains). This exemption was designed to encourage foreign investment. However, note that if an investor is resident in a “low-tax jurisdiction” (a country that Brazil considers a tax haven, with tax rates below 20%), the exemption doesn’t apply – those investors would be taxed like locals (15% capital gains tax) . For most international investors (US, EU, etc.), the exemption holds. This is a significant benefit – e.g., compared to India or China where foreigners do owe capital gains taxes, Brazil stands out by exempting it.
• Interest on Capital (JCP): Brazilian companies sometimes distribute profits as “interest on shareholders’ equity” (Juros sobre Capital Próprio – JCP) which is tax-deductible to the company but taxable to the investor. If Estapar were to pay JCP instead of dividends, there would be a 15% withholding tax for non-residents (25% if investor is in a tax haven) . However, Estapar has not indicated any plans for JCP distributions and such distributions have become less common since they’re subject to that tax and recent tax proposals might eliminate the JCP mechanism. So the primary mode is likely dividends once they choose to distribute.
• Foreign Tax Credit: While Brazil doesn’t tax capital gains or current dividends (under existing rules) for foreigners, investors should consider their home country tax obligations. For example, a U.S. investor owes U.S. tax on dividends (even if Brazil didn’t tax them) – but since Brazil’s tax is zero, there’s no foreign tax credit in that case, you just pay your normal U.S. rate on the dividend. For capital gains, the U.S. or other home country would tax according to its rules (with no Brazilian tax to offset). One upside of Brazil’s zero dividend tax is you don’t lose a slice to foreign tax – you only deal with your domestic taxation. If Brazil’s proposed 10% tax on dividends for foreigners comes into effect, U.S. investors could likely claim that 10% as a foreign tax credit to offset U.S. tax (subject to IRS rules).
• Withholding on Sale Proceeds/FX: Brazil does not impose withholding on sale proceeds for stocks. When you sell a Brazilian stock, 100% of the proceeds (assuming capital gains exempt) can be repatriated. There used to be a financial operations tax (IOF) on certain FX outflows, but currently for stock investments it’s 0%. So you won’t face a tax charge when bringing your money back out of Brazil beyond any currency conversion spread.
• Summary: For a foreign investor in Estapar, Brazil’s regime is relatively tax-efficient: no local taxes on gains, currently no local taxes on dividends. The main taxes to consider will be in your home jurisdiction. One should keep an eye on Brazilian tax reforms – there is momentum to tax dividends at source (10% proposal) from 2026, which would trim the net dividend received. But even at 10%, Brazil’s dividend tax for foreigners would remain lower than many other emerging markets. Also, note that Brazil has no estate tax for non-residents; however, if a foreign investor passes away, transferring Brazilian shares might involve some procedural hurdles, but not specific Brazilian inheritance tax.

In conclusion, Brazil offers a friendly tax environment for foreign equity investors . Estapar specifically, once it initiates payouts, could be a tax-advantaged yield play (at least under current rules). Always consult with a tax advisor on how Brazilian investments fit into your personal tax situation, especially with changes possibly coming in 2026.

3–5 Year Return Outlook (Bull/Base/Bear Scenarios)

Looking ahead 3 to 5 years, Estapar’s return potential will hinge on operational execution, margin expansion, and macroeconomic factors (like Brazil’s interest rates and car traffic trends). We outline three scenarios – Bull, Base, and Bear – with approximate expectations for Estapar’s business and stock performance by 2028:

🔵 Bull Case (High Growth / Optimal Execution): In the bull scenario, Estapar capitalizes on all its growth vectors. The company successfully adds ~100 operations each year, reaching around 1,200–1,300 total operations in 5 years. These new sites, combined with rising utilization (occupancy) rates, drive revenue growth in the mid-teens annually. By 2028, revenues could approach R$3+ billion (roughly doubling from ~R$1.5B in 2023). More importantly, EBITDA margins improve into the mid-20% range (vs ~20% now) as economies of scale kick in and digital services (which have higher margins) form a larger revenue share. In this scenario, Estapar’s net income could grow exponentially, perhaps reaching R$100M+ annually by 2028, as interest expenses fall with debt reduction and EBITDA rises. Macro assumptions here include a benign environment: Brazil’s Selic rate might be lower (say 6–8%), boosting economic activity and lowering Estapar’s cost of debt, and urbanization continues (no severe recessions). Digital platform Zul+ in this case might flourish, possibly contributing 30%+ of revenue with very high user growth (maybe 15–20 million users). If all goes right, investors might also award Estapar a higher valuation multiple, recognizing it as a leading mobility tech+infrastructure play. The stock’s EV/EBITDA could rerate to 8–9× (closer to peers), and P/E into the low teens (for a company still growing earnings ~20% p.a.). Stock Impact: In a bull case, ALPK3 could potentially double or triple in price over 3–5 years. For instance, if EBITDA in 2028 is ~R$500M and we apply 8× EV/EBITDA, the enterprise value would be R$4B. If net debt by then is, say, only R$300M (assuming strong cash generation to pay down debt), equity value would be R$3.7B, roughly 4–5× the current market cap. That suggests the stock could be in the R$15–20 range in five years in this optimistic scenario, implying a +25% to +40% annualized return. This bull case assumes excellent execution, successful digital expansion (maybe even monetizing Zul+ via partnerships or spin-off at a rich valuation), and supportive macro (no crisis, steady demand growth). Essentially Estapar would become a dominating “smart parking” company of Latin America with tech-driven margins.

🟢 Base Case (Steady Growth / Realistic): In the base scenario, Estapar performs well but within moderated expectations. The company adds perhaps 50–70 net new operations per year (somewhat below the ambitious 100 target, accounting for occasional delays or churn), still achieving healthy growth. Revenue might grow around 10% CAGR over 5 years, reaching maybe ~R$2.5 billion by 2028. Margins improve gradually – adjusted EBITDA margin could stabilize around 22–23% as efficiency gains are partly offset by competitive pressures and wage inflation. In this scenario, Estapar’s net income becomes consistently positive and rising, but not explosively – maybe hitting ~R$50–60M by 2028. The company likely starts paying dividends modestly in a base case (perhaps a 20–30% payout of earnings once net income is stable), which could give a dividend yield of ~2–3% by 2028. Macro assumptions: Brazil’s economy grows modestly, interest rates normalize ~8-9%, and car ownership/use increases at a normal pace (with maybe slight shifts to EVs, but Estapar adapts by providing charging). Digital platform growth is solid but not game-changing – Zul+ becomes an important add-on (say 25% of revenue) but not a huge profit center on its own. Valuation/Multiple: In a base case, the market might maintain a moderate valuation – perhaps EV/EBITDA stays ~6–7× and P/E in the high teens once earnings are in place (reflecting some growth premium but also Brazil risk). However, even without multiple expansion, the earnings growth itself would drive the stock up. If EBITDA grows from ~R$350M (2023) to ~R$450–500M (2028), and assuming some debt paydown, equity value should increase. Stock Impact: We could see ALPK3 provide a double-digit annualized return. For example, the stock might rise ~2x over 5 years (which is ~15% CAGR). That would put it around R$8–9 by 2028 (from ~R$4 now), not counting any dividends. Add in a few percent yield in later years, and total return might be in the high-teens percentage annually. This base case essentially assumes Estapar executes its plan competently – growing with the market, maintaining margin discipline, and benefiting from a somewhat favorable macro (but not perfect). The outcome is a solid investment return, though not a home run.

🟠 Bear Case (Challenges / Underperformance): In the bear scenario, a combination of internal and external factors limit Estapar’s progress. Possibly Brazil’s economy faces headwinds – a recession or prolonged high interest rates – reducing demand for parking (e.g. office occupancy falls again or car usage declines). In this case, Estapar might struggle to grow the top line; revenue growth could slow to low single digits or stagnate if major contracts are lost or price increases can’t be passed on. Competition could intensify, pressuring margins – perhaps new entrants or aggressive bidding by rivals lead Estapar to concede some contracts or accept lower profitability to win business. Operationally, if cost inflation (labor costs for attendants, etc.) rises faster than parking fees, margins could compress. EBITDA margins might slip back to ~18% or lower. If expansion projects don’t yield expected returns (for instance, an expensive concession might underperform, or digital investments don’t monetize well), Estapar’s earnings could disappoint. In a bear case, net income might remain very small or even dip back into occasional losses, especially if interest expenses stay high. Let’s say by 2028, revenue is only ~R$1.8–2.0B (flat from 2023 except for inflation adjustments), and EBITDA stagnates around R$300M. Net profit might be minimal. Under such circumstances, the market could penalize the stock – possibly valuing it at a low multiple or focusing on any remaining debt risks. Stock Impact: ALPK3’s share price could stagnate or fall in this scenario. If investors apply, say, a 5× EBITDA multiple on R$300M with still ~R$500M debt, equity value might be ~R$1.0B (roughly 25% up from today) – but that’s optimistic if sentiment is poor. It could equally trade below current levels if the company shows no growth and thin margins (small caps in emerging markets can drift down to 4× EV/EBITDA or less if growth evaporates). We might see the stock in the R$3–4 range or lower, roughly flat to down vs today, over a multi-year span. Including any minor dividends, total return might be near zero or slightly positive, but certainly not exciting. In a truly negative outcome (for example, a major debt refinancing issue or contract loss), the stock could drop further. However, given the progress made in 2025, a extreme bear case of return to large losses seems less likely unless there’s a severe recession or mismanagement. More plausibly, a “soft” bear case is the stock simply underperforms, delivering single-digit annual returns or none at all, making it an opportunity cost.

To summarize the scenarios:

• Bull: Estapar becomes a high-growth success, leveraging digital and scale – stock potentially doubles/triples (20%+ annual returns).
• Base: Estapar grows steadily, improves margins – stock roughly doubles in 5 years (~15% annual returns), plus initiates a dividend.
• Bear: Estapar’s growth stalls or margins erode – stock struggles to appreciate (0–5% annual return, possibly with volatility).

Key Swing Factors: We see a few variables that will determine which scenario unfolds:

1. Macro & Traffic: If Brazil’s economy does well and interest rates fall, more people drive/park and Estapar’s financing costs drop – favoring bull/base. If high inflation/unemployment hits, parking demand can soften – leaning bear.
2. Competitive Landscape: Thus far Estapar has dominated. If no serious competitor emerges and it keeps renewing contracts easily, base/bull outcomes are likely. But if, say, international players or new tech disruptors challenge Estapar in major cities, growth could slow (bearish).
3. Digital Monetization: In bull case, Zul+ could significantly boost margins (selling high-margin products to millions of users). In bear case, perhaps users don’t adopt paid services as hoped, and it remains a low-margin add-on.
4. Cost Management: Estapar’s ability to control costs (labor, rent, etc.) will affect margins. Automation (like cashless payments) can reduce costs – if they implement widely, margins go up (bull). If wage hikes outpace efficiency, margins might shrink (bear).
5. Capital Allocation: If Estapar can reduce debt and possibly start returning capital (dividends or buybacks) in a few years, investor confidence will grow (bullish). Conversely, if it overextends on an expensive concession or acquisition and has to raise equity or pile on debt, that could hurt the stock (bearish).

At Easy Brazil Investing, our inclination based on current evidence leans toward the Base-to-Bull range. Estapar has shown that its model works in 2025 – revenue is growing, and profitability is emerging. The tailwinds of urban mobility modernization and digital integration are in its favor. Barring an unforeseen economic crisis, the company should be able to at least steadily grow and de-lever, which typically yields solid returns for shareholders. The upside optionality (Zul+ becoming a “super app” or a major new concession win) gives a tantalizing bull case, while the downside seems somewhat cushioned by the essential nature of parking (even in bad times, people need to park, and contracts provide baseline revenue).

Investors should monitor upcoming earnings, the status of the dividend tax law (as it might affect net yields), and any news on new contract awards or renewals. As always, position sizing should account for volatility – Estapar is a small-cap in an emerging market, so expect stock price swings. But for those looking at a 3–5 year horizon, Estapar offers a unique play on Brazil’s urban mobility growth with a now-proven business model.

Conclusion: Estapar (ALPK3) presents a compelling investment story combining stable infrastructure-like revenue (parking concessions) with upside from technology (digital platform, EV charging). The latest results show a company on the upswing, and while risks exist, the current valuation provides a potentially attractive entry for long-term investors willing to navigate Brazilian markets. By understanding the business, keeping an eye on peer benchmarks, and being mindful of access and taxes, foreign investors can position themselves to ride the recovery and growth of Brazil’s parking and mobility leader in the years ahead.

Sources: Estapar Investor Relations – Earnings Release 3Q25 , Conference Call Transcript , Estapar IR Presentations , B3 Exchange Tax Guide , Market data from Yahoo Finance and MarketScreener . All financial figures are in Brazilian Reais (R$).

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